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Kentucky Derby Picks for Horse Racing’s Premiere North American Race
While the Belmont, Preakness and Breeder’s Cup Classic in the United States, and the Queen’s Plate, Prince of Wales and Breeder’s Stakes in Canada may all be great North American races, the most anticipated and watched is the Derby. from Kentucky. On the first Saturday in May, the race for the three-year-olds takes place in Kentucky’s historic Churchill Downs.
There are Derby prep races such as the Fountain of Youth and the Sunland Derby, to name but two, which help young horses earn enough to qualify for a chance at the Derby. These are all good races and help fans and horse players who want to have a winner in the Derby to start handicapping and choosing their selections. If you follow these races, you might also be able to pick a winner, but be careful because very few of the horses that look the best before the big race look the best when it’s over. The favorites have a knack for failing in the big race.
This leads to how to handicap the race and pick a winner. Here are some tips for the Kentucky Derby. First of all, breeding is particularly important and you need a horse capable of running the classic distances. Big leader Shackleford demonstrated the importance of breeding when he was a bit short in the Derby at 1 3/16 miles but came back and won the Preakness at the shorter distance he was bred for . So use the dosage, or the ratings provided by past performance to rate horses based on distance. Take the top 5 horses as initial contenders.
Now comes the trickiest part of your handicapping and this is one of the big secrets to handicapping success in horse racing. You need to determine which of the contenders who are high for distance are about to physically climax. Some of the three-year-olds will have put in excellent performances in these prep races, but the problem is that they have now peaked and may even lose some of their form. Rather than focusing on horses that have won those practice races, look for horses that have finished in the money and won enough to enter the big leagues without burning out and without peaking.
These races helped them build character and stamina and they matured, but they weren’t quite ready to win. The fitness cycle is simply the growth rate and conditioning curve that all athletes and developing bodies go through. Besides race luck and breeding, the form cycle is the most important factor in selecting a Derby winner. Put breeding and fitness together and pray for luck and you can cash in on a nice ticket on the first Saturday in May.
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